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Wildfire activity in the western United States has been on the rise since the mid-1980s, with longer, higher-risk fire seasons projected for the future. Prescribed burning mitigates the risk of extreme wildfire events, but such treatments are currently underutilized. Fire managers have cited lack of firefighter availability as a key barrier to prescribed burning. We use both principal component analysis (PCA) and logistic regression modeling methodologies to investigate whether or not (and if yes, under what conditions) personnel shortages on a given day are associated with lower odds of a prescribed burn occurring in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest. We utilize the logit model to further assess how personnel availability compares to other potential barriers (e.g., meteorological conditions) in terms of association with odds of a prescribed burn occurring. Our analysis finds that fall and spring days in general have distinct constellations of characteristics. Unavailability of personnel is associated with lower odds of prescribed burning in the fall season, controlling for meteorological conditions. However, in the spring, only fuel moisture is observed to be associated with the odds of prescribed burning. Our findings suggest that if agencies aim to increase prescribed burning to mitigate wildfire risk, workforce decisions should prioritize firefighter availability in the fall. 

Some of the most catastrophic fire events that have occurred in the western US in recent decades, such as the 2018 Camp Fire in California, were ignited by electric utility infrastructure. As wildfires and fire seasons intensify across the western United States, policymakers and utilities alike are working to mitigate the risk of wildfire as it relates to utility infrastructure. We pose the following research question: Is there an association between risk factors such as wildfire hazard potential and social vulnerability, and the inclusion of various strategies in mitigation planning by public or cooperative electric utilities in Washington, such as PSPS provisions and non-expulsion fuse installation? By applying statistical tools including t-tests and logistic regression modeling to test these potential associations, our analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between risk factors and the inclusion of specific wildfire mitigation strategies. We find that the inclusion of PSPS provisions in mitigation planning is significantly and nonlinearly associated with wildfire hazard potential, while social and socioeconomic vulnerability in the utility service area are negatively associated. Additionally, the installation of non-expulsion fuses is negatively associated with socioeconomic vulnerability in service populations. Overall, understanding the factors associated with wildfire mitigation planning can assist policymakers and state agencies in the prioritization of resources and practical support for utilities that may have limited capacity to mitigate wildfire risk. 

Background As fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system. Aims To address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel? Methods We develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel deployed. Key results Our analysis generates statistically significant models for personnel deployment based on precursors observable at the time and place of ignition. Conclusions We find that significant precursors for fire suppression resource deployment are location, fire weather, canopy cover, Wildland–Urban Interface category, and history of past fire. These results align partially with, but are distinct from, results of earlier research modelling expenditures related to suppression which include precursors such as total burned area which become observable only after an incident. Implications Understanding factors associated with both the natural system and the human system of decision-making that accompany high deployment fires supports holistic risk management given increasing simultaneity of ignitions and competition for resources for both fuel treatment and wildfire response. 

Background: Climate change is a strong contributing factor in the lengthening and intensification of wildfire seasons, with warmer and often drier conditions associated with increasingly severe impacts. Land managers are faced with challenging decisions about how to manage forests, minimize risk of extreme wildfire, and balance competing values at risk, including communities, habitat, air quality, surface drinking water, recreation, and infrastructure. Aims: We propose that land managers use decision analytic frameworks to complement existing decision support systems such as the Interagency Fuel Treatment Decision Support System. Methods: We apply this approach to a fire-prone landscape in eastern Washington State under two proposed landscape treatment alternatives. Through stakeholder engagement, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment, and translating results into probabilistic descriptions of wildfire occurrence (burn probability) and intensity (conditional flame length), we construct a decision tree to explicitly evaluate tradeoffs of treatment alternative outcomes. Key Results: We find that while there are slightly more effective localized benefits for treatments involving thinning and prescribed burning, neither of the UWPP’s proposed alternatives are more likely to meaningfully minimize the risk of wildfire impacts at the landscape level. Conclusions: This case study demonstrates that a quantitatively informed decision analytic framework can improve land managers’ ability to effectively and explicitly evaluate tradeoffs between treatment alternatives. 

Background The rising occurrence of simultaneous large wildfires has put strain on United States national fire management capacity leading to increasing reliance on assistance from partner nations abroad. However, limited analysis exists on international resource-sharing patterns and the factors influencing when resources are requested and deployed. Aims This study examines the drivers of international fire management ground and overhead personnel deployed to the United States. Methods Using descriptive statistics and case examples data from 2008 to 2020, this study investigates the conditions under which international personnel are deployed to the United States and their relationship to domestic resource strain. Factors such as fire weather, fire simultaneity, and the impact on people and structures are analysed as potential drivers of demand for international resources. Additionally, barriers to resource sharing, including overlapping fire seasons between countries are examined. Key results The findings indicate that international personnel sharing is more likely when the United States reaches higher preparedness levels, experiences larger area burned, and when fires pose a greater impact on people and structures. However, overlapping fire seasons can limit the ability to share resources with partner nations. Conclusions and implications Understanding the factors influencing resource sharing can help improve collaboration efforts and enhance preparedness for future wildfire seasons. 

Changing global fire regimes including extended fire seasons due to climate change may increase the co-occurrence of high-impact fires that overwhelm national fire suppression capacities. These shifts increase the demand for international resource sharing to supplement national fire suppression efforts. In this paper, we explore the development and evaluate the effectiveness of international resource sharing arrangements of three regions: (1) The United States, Canada, and Australia (“Big Three”); (2) Europe; and (3) Southeast Asia by conducting a literature review of gray and peer- reviewed literature in combination with key informant interviews. For the “Big Three” and Europe, international resource sharing is perceived as necessary, effective, and continuously improving. Converging fire management processes and training and developing more effective administrative procedures facilitate these relationships. In Southeast Asia, political tensions and limited firefighting capacities have hampered effective cooperation. Formalized agreements of country-to-country support for fire management are nascent and evolving, and there is evidence that demand for expanding and improving these partnerships is increasing. 

National and regional preparedness level (PL) designations support decisions about wildfire risk management. Such decisions occur across the fire season and influence pre-positioning of resources in areas of greatest fire potential, recall of personnel from off-duty status, requests for back-up resources from other areas, responses to requests to share resources with other regions during fire events, and decisions about fuel treatment and risk reduction, such as prescribed burning. In this paper, we assess the association between PLs assigned at national and regional (Northwest) scales and a set of predictors including meteorological and climate variables, wildfire activity and the mobilisation and allocation levels of fire suppression resources. To better understand the implicit weighting applied to these factors in setting PLs, we discern the qualitative and quantitative factors associated with PL designations by statistical analysis of the historical record of PLs across a range of conditions. Our analysis constitutes an important step towards efforts to forecast PLs and to support the future projection and anticipation of firefighting resource demand, thereby aiding wildfire risk management, planning and preparedness.